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    <title>峯 / lex-feng</title>
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    <description>匿名学术自留地。法律、经济、制度的交叉笔记。Anonymous personal scholarly notebook on law, economics, and institutional design.</description>
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      <title>为什么「平均不忙」却经常崩：泊松叠加、摸鱼冗余，与白领时代的工时博弈</title>
      <link>https://lex-feng.com/20260501-为什么「平均不忙」却经常崩：泊松叠加、摸鱼冗余，与白领时代的工时博弈.html</link>
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      <pubDate>Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 +0800</pubDate>
      <dc:creator>峯</dc:creator>
      <category>泊松分布</category>
      <category>工资-工时制度</category>
      <category>委托代理</category>
      <category>摸鱼</category>
      <description><![CDATA[一个常见的管理悖论：团队月均工时远未达到容量上限，但加班、交付延迟却频繁发生。本文借助泊松叠加定理还原这一现象的概率机制，并援引 Cheung、Coase 与 Holmström-Milgrom 的理论，将员工「摸鱼」重新解释为对随机冲击的分散化缓冲配置——一种看不见但真实存在的组织韧性。

A management paradox: team monthly hours stay below capacity yet overtime and delays remain frequent. Uses the Poisson superposition theorem to reconstruct the probabilistic mechanism, and draws on Cheung, Coase, and Holmström-Milgrom to recast employee slack as a decentralized buffer against tail-risk shocks—an invisible but real source of organizational resilience.]]></description>
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